AI Boom: Record Investment, Nonrecord Prosperity

According to Federal Reserve data, from the end of Biden’s presidency through mid-2026, the combined wealth of American households grew by approximately $26 trillion. However, only the wealthiest 1% of the population increased their share of national wealth. The other half of households received less than $500 billion of that total—less than 2% of the increase. How did this happen? Growth was largely driven by the stock market, and stocks are primarily owned by wealthy Americans. For most people, however, the cost of living remains the key economic issue.

Meanwhile, inflation is accelerating again. Prices are being pushed up by import tariffs, higher energy costs due to the conflict with Iran, and the AI boom itself, which is driving up demand for electricity, equipment, and capital. Mortgage rates have risen by more than a percentage point over the past year, and in September the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Average consumer spending figures look respectable largely because of affluent Americans. Others are hunting for discounts and cutting back on nonessential spending.

As a result, a distinct two-speed economic model is taking shape: at one end are strong indicators of growth, while at the other is widespread public dissatisfaction. With the November midterm elections approaching, this is becoming a significant political challenge for Trump, who promised not only to stop prices from rising but to bring them down.

The Russian Federation’s technological gap with the United States in AI is growing. Russia cannot afford investment on this scale given its high key interest rate and sanctions restricting access to equipment. On the other hand, the American experience shows that a technological leap does not, by itself, guarantee rising prosperity for the majority. Without a considered policy for distributing its benefits, they become concentrated in the hands of a narrow group.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy and International Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Gorbacheva.