Does the UAE’s Exit from OPEC Create a New Risk to the Stability of the Oil Market?

In Abu Dhabi’s official rhetoric, this decision is linked to the need for greater flexibility in the oil market and an increase in global supply amid ongoing risks to deliveries, including the situation around the Strait of Hormuz (Source: Interfax, April 28, 2026).

This development has attracted wide attention, as the UAE is not a minor player in the oil market. According to the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2026, in 2025 the UAE accounted for about 4.2% of global oil production (3.12 million barrels per day compared to 74.85 million barrels per day worldwide), held approximately 7.6% of the world’s proven oil reserves (120 billion barrels out of 1.57 trillion barrels globally), and represented around 11.4% of total OPEC production (3.12 million barrels per day out of 27.47 million barrels per day among OPEC countries). The country’s exit from the organization may increase downward pressure on global oil prices in the long term, as the Emirates will gain more room to expand production outside OPEC+ collective constraints.

At the same time, according to Alexander Shenderiuk-Zhidkov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Budget Committee, Saudi Arabia may become the main loser (Source: Lenta.ru, April 28, 2026). With the UAE’s departure, Riyadh will lose some leverage over managing oil supply on the market, which may affect the effectiveness of OPEC+ policy aimed at maintaining price levels comfortable for participants.

Andy Lipow, head of the consulting company Lipow Oil Associates (USA, Houston), believes that the Emirates’ decision could become a trigger for further weakening of OPEC if other members grow dissatisfied with partners’ non-compliance with quotas (Source: CNBC, April 29, 2026). Previously, Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola had also left OPEC; however, the UAE’s exit appears more significant due to the country’s weight in oil production and its investment strategy. In this regard, it is important to analyze the relationship between these countries’ withdrawals from OPEC and global oil prices, including the OPEC Reference Basket (the OPEC basket is a price indicator calculated as the production-weighted average price of a basket of 12 crude oil grades from member countries). Figure 1 shows the dynamics of Brent and WTI oil prices, as well as the OPEC basket, during the periods when the above-mentioned countries exited the organization, allowing for a comparison between the market’s short-term reaction and subsequent price movements.

Fig. 1. Dynamics of Brent, WTI, and the OPEC basket oil prices since 2018.

Source: compiled by the author based on data from the FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and OPEC.

As shown in Fig. 1, historically, a country’s withdrawal from OPEC in itself did not lead to a sustained decline in oil prices:

• Qatar ended its participation in the organization on January 1, 2019. Prior to its exit, its production amounted to about 595 thousand barrels per day, corresponding to approximately 1.8% of total OPEC production and placing the country in the lower tier of producers within the organization (Source: OPEC, CEIC Data). After Qatar’s exit, prices, on the contrary, recovered: over three months, Brent and WTI rose by about 36%, and the OPEC basket increased by 32.5%.
• Ecuador left OPEC on January 1, 2020. Its production before withdrawal amounted to about 535 thousand barrels per day, or roughly 1.8–1.9% of OPEC output; thus, in terms of influence, the country was also not among the largest participants in the organization (Source: OPEC, CEIC). However, the drop in oil prices at the beginning of 2020 was much more severe. Prices fell by 66% to 80%, but this was primarily due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic (the WHO officially declared a pandemic in early March 2020), as well as the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia that began after the collapse of OPEC+ negotiations on March 6, 2020, and ended following a new OPEC+ agreement on production cuts reached on April 12, 2020.
• Angola withdrew from OPEC on January 1, 2024. Unlike Qatar and Ecuador, it had a more noticeable weight—about 1.1–1.13 million barrels per day, or roughly 4% of OPEC production (Source: Reuters; OPEC; EIA). One month later, Brent crude prices were approximately 6.8% higher, WTI up by 6.1%, and the OPEC basket up by 5.8%.

Historical analysis shows that in previous cases the market reaction was moderate, since Qatar and Ecuador accounted for a small share of the organization’s production, and the effect of Angola’s exit was limited by its own declining output and overall market conditions. However, the UAE case is different—the country accounts for a significantly larger share of OPEC production, so its withdrawal may have a stronger impact on expectations regarding future oil supply.

In the context of potential disruption to the quota system’s stability, the UAE may opt for a substantial increase in production. Additional pressure on prices comes from external factors, especially the ongoing tense situation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, as well as risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Under these conditions, oil price dynamics could become more pronounced, which should be taken into account in Russia’s strategy as a major oil exporter.

Author: Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Department of World Economy and World Finance of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Rinas Vasimovich Kashbraziev.